Sportonomics: Knicks on Fire In 2024 after Anunoby Trade

The New York Knicks, around a month and a half away from the first round of the NBA playoffs, stand at 32-17 and currently hold third place in the Eastern Conference. And yet, they stood at 23-17 just nine games ago. Is their nine-game win streak and counting a sign for their future this year?

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We can’t understand their impressive win streak without looking into the players who made it happen. Jaylen Brunson, the Knicks’  All-Star point guard, led the Knicks to a fourth-quarter comeback against the Indiana Pacers at Madison Square Garden, shooting 15-for-30, including an and-1 that put New York solidly in front, and finishing with an incredible 40 points in their 109-105 win. Their ninth win in a row didn’t come easy, and as Knicks guard Donte DiVincenzo admitted after the win, “It’s not easy right now with Julius going down, OG going down, Mitch not being here. Everything's been thrown against us, and he's still willing us to win games.” 

In late December 2023, the Knicks made a long-anticipated trade: they acquired OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, and Malachi Flynn, sending away the beloved RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley and a 2024 second-round pick. Despite OG and others going down, the Knicks have rallied for the past game and utilized their newly acquired Precious Achiuwa alongside Isiah Hartenstein and Josh Hart at the forward spots, combining for 47 rebounds in their most recent game. 

The Knicks are also now in a great financial position, having shed over $100 million in salary for RJ Barrett. A rumor found that Quickley wanted at least a $100 million contract of his own. Fortunately, the organization won't have to pay Quickley in restricted free agency this upcoming summer. Still, the Knicks must pay Anunoby, which will certainly eat into their flexibility with cap space. Before continuing with the keys to the Knicks bringing home a finals championship, it's important to note a few things. Anunoby essentially has three options for his next contract. First, he could sign an extension at this moment. However, he is limited to coming in under the extend-and-trade parameters, which would mean declining his player option for next season by signing a two-year extension worth around $40 million. Anunoby can sign a standard veteran extension on June 30-31, when his six-month extension restriction will be lifted. This extension could be worth nearly $117 million over the ensuing four years. This route would also mean Anunoby declining his player option for next year but extending for a maximum of four years with a 40% raise compared to his current salary and an 8% raise after that. That would earn him an average annual value (AAV) of about $29.2 million. The number is far more similar to what Anunoby would be looking for in a contract than the $20 million AAV he could extend for now. A third route is that Anunoby could choose to not extend and simply play things out all the way to unrestricted free agency this summer, where he would be eligible for a max first-year value of $42.6 million. That could be paid by the Knicks (with the possibility of a tacked-on fifth year) or any other team.

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Overall, it's extremely unlikely that Anunoby will extend now or anytime before June 30, as he wouldn't be taking the maximum amount of money he could earn if he simply waits it out. Achiuwa and Flynn will both be eligible for restricted free agency this summer. It's likely Flynn won't stay as the Knicks already have other guards, and they've taken a liking to Miles McBride, who the organization has been developing over the last few years and is in a similar position to Flynn as a restricted free agent and point guard.

Looking back on this year's team, I expect New York to continue toying with the roster. Their trade saved them a solid amount of money on the books for this year as they currently stand around $5 million below the luxury tax line and around $10 million under the tax line (a hard cap). Given that leeway, the team could make additional moves in the future. Right now, reserves have had to step in with injuries continuing to damage the team, but it's not a lasting solution.

New York’s reserves have stepped up in a “next man up” mentality, catapulting the team forward in the standings, but what can we expect moving forward? It’s important to realize that the last time the Knicks had a 14-2 month before this January was nearly 20 years ago in 1994… when they went to the NBA finals. However, New York can’t expect their reserves to step up every game. The team has to get and stay healthy. Julius Randle is out for weeks with a dislocated shoulder. It could only help if the team could climb to the third seed and obtain a home-court advantage for at least a playoff round. The Eastern Conference has been extremely competitive, so the Knicks will need breaks in terms of matchups.

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In the playoffs, the Knicks would have to square off against the top teams in their conference, like the Celtics, who they’ve yet to beat and are 0-3 against, and the Bucks, who have beaten the Knicks three times, with the Knicks only scratching out one win. Overall, New York has capitalized when playing against teams below a .500 record, with an outstanding 21-1 record versus these teams. Yet, their 11-16 vs. .500 and above teams leave much to be desired and indicate a lack of playoff readiness. The team has succeeded in the Eastern Conference as a whole with a 22-10 record against other Eastern Conference teams. Their success so far has fallen largely on the offensive prowess of Jaylen Brunson (and, more recently, Donte DiVincenzo) and Tom Thibodeau's defense, which has locked teams down with or without OG Anunoby on the court. 

So far, the Knicks have already made a blockbuster trade in acquiring OG Anunoby and more. Where will the Knicks go ahead of the rapidly approaching February 8th trade deadline? Will they stay still or make a move? Only time will tell how far this Knicks team will go, but we can all say they have a bright future ahead.