Sportonomics: NFL Concussions and their Effects on Player Contracts

On September 13, 2024, the Miami Dolphins' anchor quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was diagnosed with his third concussion in his short NFL career and his fourth since college as Alabama's quarterback. Cases like Tagovailoa are not rare, though they do demonstrate the immense risks of playing a high-contact sport like football and spark a national debate over the sport's safety. In fact, the injury has prompted the Dolphins' head coach Mike McDaniel to tell the media that he was not certain on the player's future in the league: "As far as I'm concerned, I'm just worried about the human being and where that's at day to day, and I think I'll let Tua be the champion of his own career and speak on that." However, more than injury concerns, many are speculating about his contract.

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press.

The Dolphins' quarterback has a four-year $212 million contract he signed as an extension last summer. The contract stipulates a guaranteed $167 million for the quarterback. Tagovaiola's decision to retire would complicate the stipulation. If he remains on the roster (or, in other words, does not retire and gets medically cleared to play) or is cut because of an injury, then that $167 million is paid out. Retiring would jeopardize access to that allotted money. The National Football League and the NFLPA had agreed to change their concussion regulations following the Dolphins' mismanagement of Tagovaiola's 2022 concussion. These new concussion protocols now impact the quarterback's difficult decision. If Tagoviola is medically cleared to play but still decides on retirement, the quarterback will not receive the guaranteed money as long as there is not a settlement. Otherwise, if it is deemed medically necessary to retire he will receive the guaranteed millions.

Edward Diller/Getty Images

An estimated $40+ million has already been paid to Tagovaoila, but players have in the past been required to return these parts of their salary bonuses if they retire. One past player was the NFL linebacker Luke Keuchly. Keuchly, after retiring for health-related issues in 2020, left over $20 million to retire. The Indianapolis Colts star quarterback and 2012 NFL draft first overall pick Andrew Luck made headlines when he abruptly retired at age 29 after a string of injuries, leaving over $50 million on the table. Many speculated that the young and well-adjusted quarterback had just walked away from a possible $400+ million that could have been made if he continued his career.

Although the NFL has changed the regulations to allow players to be financially secure even if retiring, the concussion and CTE challenges surrounding the league in almost each of the 18 regular season games beg the question of whether something needs to be changed, and quickly, to save the health of these millionaire stars.

By The Learning Network, Published Sept. 21, 2023, Updated Oct. 5, 2023

The issue of CTE is extremely glaring. Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) is a brain condition caused by repeated head impacts-seen regularly in the NFL- that creates cognitive decline, memory loss, and even mood swings. A 2023 study illustrates the grave situation: 91.7% of 370+ past NFL players studied had CTE. More than 300 have been officially diagnosed with CTE. Many, though, did not fight to retire, did not even realize they had CTE, and certainly did not leave the game of football. In the near future, I expect the NFL's regulations around CTE, concussions, and other damaging and prevalent injuries to be changed for the betterment of the players. Similarly, player contracts within the NFL will also have to adapt. Other contact sports, including boxing and hockey, may have to alter their player contracts over similar health and player safety challenges.